When will World War I end?

We are proud, freedom-loving people who have repeatedly shown us that we can fight for our freedom and win it in wars. The symbolism of the Natalija's Ramonda flower is used to depict this characteristic of ours. It is little known that the flower was named after Natalija Obrenović, a queen from the dynasty that disappeared in the May Coup of 1903, one of the bloodiest coups in Serbian history. In the war in which three empires disappeared, many countries changed their territories, and even Serbia disappeared. However, it had won the battle with all the characteristics of Natalija's Ramonda, which began only a decade later. Has that war ever ended in these lands?

The Great War broke out due to the great powers' desire for a new world division. Although the immediate cause of the war was the assassination in Sarajevo, the real reason lay in the economic interests of the great powers. But why Serbia? It is neither a great power nor did it, especially after the Balkan Wars, have any desire to enter another conflict. To answer this complex question, we need to delve a bit into the history of the economy in these regions. The most important event for this historical analysis is the Berlin Congress of 1878, at which Serbia, led by Milan Obrenović, sought consent to become an independent state. It succeeded but at a significant cost. Austrian Emperor Franz Joseph conditioned his support for Serbia to become an independent state with special economic requirements that primarily concerned the construction of a railway network, regulating navigation on the Danube, and foreign trade relations with Balkan countries. Given the severe financial crisis, Austria-Hungary wanted to secure its interests in the Eastern market in the long run. The key was the construction of a railway from Vienna to Istanbul and its branches through Bosnia, Serbia, and Romania. At the same time, it was envisaged that Austria-Hungary would be allowed to collect tariffs for transit. Serbia had to take 26 loans by World War I, which exceeded 900 million francs in 1914. The agreement that gave Austria-Hungary almost 90% monopoly over Serbia's foreign trade showed Austria-Hungary economic dominance over Serbia. This prevented Serbia from achieving full economic development and limited its production to products such as livestock, fruit, and cereals. To maintain Serbia's economic dependence, Austria-Hungary remained a producer of raw materials rather than a processor. Until 1905, Serbian exports to this country accounted for an average of 80% of total export revenues.

The May Coup of 1903 brought the Karađorđevićs back to power, and Serbia adopted a new orientation in foreign and economic policy. The industry, trade, sales, and transportation were reorganized. However, the accurate takeoff occurred during the customs war when the Serbian sector experienced significant growth. Almost half of all factories established before World War I were founded after 1906, when the customs war began. France, which became the main creditor of virtually all Balkan countries during that period, financed nearly 80% of all loans in Serbia at the time. Austria-Hungary, which had previously covered almost 88% of Serbian exports, now accounted for only 30% of Serbian foreign trade, thus relinquishing its privileged position to other countries. Despite significant investments, small businesses with few employees, low invested capital, and minimal machinery equipment prevailed in Serbia. The customs war largely exacerbated conflicts between great powers and their interests in Southeastern Europe. The interests of great powers, but above all, the appeal of Austria-Hungary to retain Serbia under its economic control led to an inevitable conflict that escalated very quickly. The customs war replaced the real, great war, which in four years cost Serbia a third of its total population and almost half of its male population. It should be noted here that in 1914, Serbia, with the Niš Declaration, declared the unification of the southern Slavs into one state as its war aim, raising the stakes in the conflict to an even higher level, showing Austria-Hungary that it would not be content with just defending its country but also wanted to strengthen its influence in the Balkans by creating a new, larger, and stronger state.

The customs war largely exacerbated conflicts between great powers and their interests in Southeastern Europe. The interests of great powers, but above all, the appeal of Austria-Hungary to retain Serbia under its economic control led to an inevitable conflict that escalated very quickly. The customs war replaced the real, great war, which in four years cost Serbia a third of its total population and almost half of its male population. It should be noted here that in 1914, Serbia, with the Niš Declaration, declared the unification of the southern Slavs into one state as its war aim, raising the stakes in the conflict to an even higher level, showing Austria-Hungary that it would not be content with just defending its country but also wanted to strengthen its influence in the Balkans by creating a new, larger, and stronger state.

World War I was resolved on the Western Front when the structure of the German military collapsed under the combined attacks of Britain, France, and the United States following the failure of Ludendorff's spring offensive in 1918. It is important to emphasize that the Axis powers, first Bulgaria and later Austria-Hungary and Germany, suffered a complete defeat on the Salonika Front, carried mainly by Serbian soldiers, before finally collapsing on the Western Front. Although the war ended in the West, the geopolitical structure in the West did not change significantly. The most significant changes that completely changed the geopolitical landscape occurred in the East, creating a series of new states and consequences that later proved fatal in history.

So, the military actions ceased, new states were created, and the geopolitical situation changed, but the war in these regions has never actually ended. The newly formed state, unstable and contested from all sides, both externally and internally, lasted until World War II, when, again, at significant cost and after another four years of suffering and a bloody civil war, the second Yugoslavia was established. It survived on the wings of a socialist regime until the violent dissolution of the 1990s. Has the First World War finally ended in these lands? Are we finally at peace now, and have the interests of the great economic powers finally been fulfilled? If we look at the economies of the newly formed states in Southeastern Europe, the structure of the industry, the economy, and banking, and look at the statistics of foreign direct investments and the countries from which they come, we will find many analogies with the described economic situation before the First World War. The war with guns and cannons may have ended. However, the battle for dominance and the interests of the great powers in Southeastern Europe is still ongoing. It is slowly but surely heading towards complete control of the local economies by the significant authorities. At this point, it is not important who the great powers are, although if you look at the statistics, it is relatively straightforward and is similar to the period before World War I. Economic imperialism has succeeded in what guns and cannons failed to achieve.

Is the First World War finally over in these lands? Are we finally at peace now, and have the interests of the great economic powers finally been fulfilled? If we look at the economies of the newly formed states in Southeastern Europe, the structure of the industry, the economy, and banking, and look at the statistics of foreign direct investments and the countries from which they come, we will find many analogies with the described economic situation before the First World War. The war with guns and cannons may have ended. However, the battle for dominance and the interests of the great powers in Southeastern Europe is still ongoing. It is slowly but surely heading towards complete control of the local economies by the significant authorities. At this point, it is not important who the great powers are, although if you look at the statistics, it is relatively straightforward and does not differ much from the period before World War I. Economic imperialism has succeeded in what guns and cannons failed to achieve.

Today, Serbia, a century after the end of the First World War, has, if not the same, a very similar economic position with the great powers. Our economy is highly dependent on plentiful fuels; foreign owners control entire industries, and a significant part of the economy consists of small, weak enterprises struggling against large and powerful global companies. Foreign direct investments, which have proven to be a very efficient tool for reducing unemployment and achieving faster economic growth, at the same time take all the profits out of the country, leaving Serbia once again in a position where it mainly produces raw materials or semi-finished products that are later used for the production of final products in Western countries. Attracting foreign investments is not bad, but it can be a short-term good injection into the economy. Serbia's long-term strategy should be the development of the local economy, local ownership, and stimulating local economic ventures.

A century after the victory in the First World War, we must reorganize, define a new strategy, and symbolically, like the Natalija's Ramonda flower, gradually and decisively return the Serbian economy to the hands of Serbs, this time smartly. The economic First World War in these regions is still ongoing. Serbia currently has a chance to revitalize its economy through economic localization because the great powers are shaken by the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 crisis. And to conclude with the words of another great figure of the era I wrote about in the text, the great Živojin Mišić, who, in response to the terms of one of his officers, "General, we are surrounded," replied just as we can today: "Excellent, my friend, now we can attack in all directions!"